コメント 東アジア地域統合とリベラル経済秩序の今後

抄録

This paper will examine those recent developments in East Asian economic integration that have occurred since the session “the Economic Integration and Development in East Asia,” held at the 2016 convention of the Japan Association for Asian Studies (JAAS) about two years ago. The work on plans like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is deeply intertwined with the tensions among the United States, China, Japan, the ASEAN countries, and other regional powers regarding their visions of a new regional order in Asia. That is, the outcome of RCEP negotiation, the effects of the TPP and the future development of the BRI will in large part determine both regional integration and the new regional order in East Asia and the Asia–Pacific.

The most important backdrop of these efforts is the stress placed on the liberal economic order by two. First, the United States, which was once a champion of the liberal economic order that worked hard to sustain it, drastically transformed its foreign policy, adopting an “America First” protectionist stance, beginning in January 2017. The U.S. withdrawal from the TPP, in particular, gave the scheme a shock, and this eventually led to the signing of the TPP without the United States, in a modified document called the Comprehensive and Progressive TPP (CPTPP) in March 2018. The “America First” policy provoked concern over the retreat of economic liberalism in Asia and the Pacific.

China, for its part, is rapidly expanding its economic influence in its neighboring countries, implemented through its state capitalism. The BRI exhibits characteristics of China’s economic management and strategy regarding Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Through the BRI, China is expected to provide huge economic benefits to countries in the affected regions, and the recipient countries welcome China’s assistance and support. However, China’s approach of state capitalism is not always compatible with the liberal economic order.

In this turbulence, the CPTPP and the RCEP are expected to help sustain the liberal economic order. When the CPTPP actually enters into effect, one should watch for whether it expands the economies and influence of its member countries. The negotiation of the RCEP, despite the rising expectations it has provoked, will not be easily finalized: the interests of the member countries interests remain sharply at odds. The level of liberalization and the quality of the finalized RCEP will determine the trajectory of economic integration in East Asia.