Scenario Planning for Snow Disaster Adaptation Based on Causality Diagram and Numerical Simulation

Abstract

In this study, a process was designed and analyzed through dialogue based cocreation of the causality diagram and simulation in Kutsuki district, to obtain suggestions for a community-based climate change adaptation process through exploratory scenario planning (XSP) in heavy snowfall region. As a result, 'additional public assistance' could be structured as a social impact in the future through simulation, with implications for adaptation measures. The design of processes through dialogue and simulation interaction is essential in sharing uncertainties among participants and identifying critical uncertainties in XSP.