Development of a model for agricultural income analysis to evaluate climate change impacts and adaptation technologies

Abstract

Farm management models for improving farmers' livelihoods and reducing risks include models that can derive an optimal state using stochastic programming to select technologies and crops to cope with weather-related and other risks. However, when advising farmers, presenting an optimal state to them may not lead to a change in their behavior because there are some different routes between their current situation and the optimal state. Therefore, we develop a spreadsheet tool to derive farm income as a stochastic variable by combining crop yields projected by a crop model and results of rural surveys. This tool visually represents the distribution of farm income and makes it possible to compare the effect of alternative technologies relative to a current situation, enabling support for technology development and advice to farmers.