Diagnostic Accuracy of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction for In-Hospital and 360-Day Mortality in Japanese Patients

Abstract

Background:The purpose of the present study was to confirm the diagnostic accuracy of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score 1.0 (GRACE 1.0) and updated GRACE 1.0 (GRACE 2.0) for in-hospital and 360-day mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Japanese patients. GRACE 1.0 and GRACE 2.0 are the established predictive models in acute coronary syndrome, but their application to Japanese patients has not been fully verified.Methods and Results:The present study retrospectively analyzed 412 consecutive STEMI patients who had undergone primary percutaneous coronary intervention from January 2006 to September 2011. All causes of death during hospitalization were examined to confirm the diagnostic accuracy of GRACE 1.0 on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Similarly, all causes of death during the 360 days after hospitalization were analyzed to confirm the diagnostic accuracy of GRACE 2.0. The average GRACE 1.0 score was 175.8±50.9. In-hospital and 360-day mortality were 13.1% and 15.5%, respectively. Area under the ROC curve, which describes the diagnostic accuracy of the GRACE 1.0 predicted in-hospital mortality and the GRACE 2.0 predicted 360-day mortality, was as high as 0.95 and 0.92, respectively.Conclusions:Both GRACE 1.0 and GRACE 2.0 had a high diagnostic accuracy for prediction of in-hospital and 360-day mortality in Japanese STEMI patients. (Circ J 2014; 78: 2950–2954)