Predicting Short-Term Mortality in Advanced Decompensated Heart Failure　– Role of the Updated Acute Decompensated Heart Failure/N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Risk Score –

Abstract

Background:The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).Methods and Results:We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769–0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761–0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models.Conclusions:Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models. (Circ J 2015; 79: 1076–1083)