Estimating Incidence of Acute Heart Failure Syndromes in Japan　― An Analysis From the KUNIUMI Registry ―

Abstract

Background:Few registries have provided precise information concerning incidence rates for acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) in Japan.

Methods and Results:All hospitals with acute care beds in Awaji Island participated in the Kobe University heart failure registry in Awaji Medical Center (KUNIUMI Registry), a retrospective, population-based AHFS registration study, enabling almost every patient with AHFS in Awaji Island to be registered. From 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017, 743 patients with de novo AHFS had been registered. Mean age was 82.1±11.5 years. Using the general population of Japan as of 2015 as a standard, age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates for AHFS were 133.8 per 100,000 person-years for male and 120.0 for female. In 2015, there were an estimated 159,702 new-onset patients with AHFS, which was predicted to increase to 252,153 by 2040, and reach a plateau. The proportion of patients aged >85 years accounted for 42.6% in 2015, which was predicted to increase up to 62.5% in 2040. The proportion of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction was estimated at 52.0% in 2015, which was predicted to increase gradually to 57.3% in 2055.

Conclusions:The present analysis suggested that the number of patients with de novo AHFS keeps increasing with progressive aging in Japan. Establishment of countermeasures against the expanding burden of HF is urgently required.