Measuring the Impact of the Development of the Chuo Shinkansen Using a Quasi-Dynamic SCGE Model that considers the Population Movement

Abstract

In this paper, a quasi-dynamic SCGE model that can evaluate the time-series social and economic impact of high-speed railway development on regions along the route quantitatively is developed and the model is applied to the Chuo Shinkansen from Tokyo to Nagoya (286km) which adopts the maglev linear motor car system and is expected to commence in 2027. As results of the simulation, it is indicated that the development of the Chuo Shinkansen will cause the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area to decrease, while the population of the Kofu and Nagoya metropolitan areas will increase, thus having the potential to resolve overpopulation problems in the Tokyo metropolitan area.