2019 年 13 巻 p. 2487-2505
The frequency of flood occurrences has increased worldwide, e.g., in Thailand increasing fourfold during 2001 to 2010, partly due to climate change. As one of the solutions against increasing flood in urban areas, adaptation policies to minimize the flood risk are implemented in many municipalities. However, there are few researches to evaluate the effects of adaptation policies on flood risk and urban activities. Therefore, in this study, the system dynamics model to estimate the impacts of adaptation policies on urban activities was developed and applied to Ubon Ratchathani, which is a middle-sized city in Thailand. Then, the impacts on urban activities by the change of the flood risk were analyzed. It was found that as the flood risks increased, population and travel behavior were changed. Finally, the adaptation policies for the reduction of flood risk could help to reduce total damage cost by 95.4 billion THB.
