Single-vehicle impact speed modelling from vehicle tracking and injury crash data: A case study of Addis-Adama Toll Road, Ethiopia

抄録

This study explores the relationship between impact speed and crash severity in single-vehicle accidents, focusing on different vehicle types. Analyzing 869 crash records from the Addis-Adama Toll Road in Ethiopia, the research uses vehicle tracking and injury data. A multinomial logistic regression model assessed the impact of speed, considering factors such as vehicle type, road conditions, lighting, and road geometry. The findings indicate that impact speeds below 50 km/h rarely result in fatalities. However, when speeds exceed 85 km/h, the likelihood of fatalities increases significantly for larger vehicles like trucks and buses. Speeds above 90 km/hrs substantially raise the risk of fatal crashes, particularly for passenger cars. These results highlight the critical role of speed in crash severity, providing key insights into risk factors across vehicle types and road conditions.