EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TYPES OF TRAVEL DEMAND TECHNIQUES AND ESTIMATED USER'S BENEFIT STEMMING FROM TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT

抄録

This paper aims to analyze empirically the impact of selecting travel demand forecast techniques on estimation of user's benefit stemming from transportation investment. Three techniques are discussed in the paper: the multinominal logit (MNL), user equilibrium (UE) and all-or-nothing (AON). These three techniques are compared in the empirical analysis of the urban railway project in Tokyo based on the same data set. Consequently, it is found that the user's benefit estimated by the MNL is largest, whereas the benefit by the UE is smaller than the benefit estimated by the MNL by about 10 % and the benefit estimated by the AON is smaller than the MNL by about 20%. Finally, some policy implications related to choosing the travel demand forecast techniques in transportation planning are discussed.