Recently in Japan, Low Cost Carriers (LCC) have entered into the market and the fierce competition is unfolded. It is our great concern that how become the selection of airline. In order to clarify the preference shift of airline, we have made the questionnaire investigation. In the general case of purchasing, it is often observed that consumers select/purchase upper class brand when they purchase next time. Suppose that former purchasing data and current purchasing data are gathered. Also suppose that upper brand is located upper in the variable array. Then transition matrix becomes upper triangle matrix under the supposition that former purchasing variables are set input and current purchasing variables are set output. If the top brand were selected from lower brand in jumping way, corresponding part in upper triangle matrix would be 0. Then in the airline selection case, how does it become. The questionnaire investigation to airline ticket purchasing case is executed and above structure is confirmed. If transition matrix is identified, S-step forecasting can be executed. Generalized forecasting matrix components’ equations are introduced. Thus, this proposed approach enables to make effective marketing plan.
