兵庫県におけるニホンジカの個体数管理に向けた複数のシナリオの検討と将来予測

抄録

We try to predict the changes of Sika deer density and agricultural damages in Hyogo prefecture in 2001. The following four patterns of hunting plans are assumed: (a) hunting no deer; (b) hunting the same numbers of deer in the same areas as they were hunted in 2000; (c) hunting twice as many deer as were hunted in 2000 with hunted numbers allocated in the proportion to density in 2000, (d) hunting twice as many deer as were hunted in 2000 with hunted numbers allocated in the proportion to increase rate in 2000. The results suggest that, in the case (a) ,the deer density and agricultura ldamage would not be reduced. In the case (c) ,these would be reduced. We examine the reliabili tbyy comparing the prediction and actually observed data in 2001, and discuss how to improve the forecasting methods and application of wildlife management in Hyogo.