Spatial Distributional Prediction of Korean Brown Frogs (Rana uenoi, R. huanrenensis and R. coreana) according to Climate Change

抄録

Climate change may cause a decrease the habitat and population of organisms and has a direct impact on biodiversity. In particular, ectotherms such as amphibians are more vulnerable to changes in environmental factors than other taxa. In this study, we identified the main distribution areas and habitat characteristics of three Brown Frog species inhabiting South Korea based on observation points and species distribution modeling techniques, and predicted distribution changes under climate change models. Altitude, temperature, diurnal range, and precipitation were identified as environmental variables having a major influence, and the distribution showed a different form depending on the surroundings of the Taebaek Mountains Range. As such, the spatial distribution ranges and habitat characteristics predicted by the species distribution model reflected the results of previous studies. Analyses of distributions under predicted future climates found suitable areas for Rana uenoi are expected to increase by 6% in RCP4.5 and decrease by 67% in RCP8.5 compared to the current distribution range. Likewise, areas suitable for R. huanrenensis decreased by 86% in RCP4.5 and 99% in RCP8.5, and for R. coreana decrease by 95% in RCP4.5 and 99% in RCP8.5. Overall, it was found that suitable habitats are rapidly decreasing due to climate change. These results suggest the possibility that climate change could seriously affect amphibians. Additional research into the main microenvironmental factors that affect species decline will help prepare management plans for vulnerable species.