将来の不確定環境下における供給信頼度に関する検討

─ロバスト信頼度面からの考察─

抄録

In this paper, we propose three applications evaluating the N-1 security quantitatively with increased uncertainties. By using Robust Dynamic Security region (RDS), which is based on the concept of Robust Power System Security (RS), the key region for judging the security and a new evaluation index for quantitative analysis, we can evaluate power system security as follows. (1) The calculation of RDS at the time of yearly peak load demand can be recognized as the benchmark of the N-1 security at present and this method can be applied to the future power system with increased renewable energy sources (RES) such as PV. (2) We show the yearly declining trend of the N-1 security owing to the increased PV penetration year by year. (3) We calculate the necessary amount of additional power supply capacity, including conventional electric power generators or storage batteries, needed for maintaining the N-1 security same as the present level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulations using a three machines model system.