設備容量の不確実性を考慮した太陽光発電出力推定手法

抄録

Because of lack of infrastructures to monitor PV (PhotoVoltaics) power generated in homes, large amount of PV power generation in power system will become unmeasurable. This problem may prevent power companies from managing their power system efficiently. To solve this problem, we propose PV power generation estimation method without requiring any historical data of actual PV power generation values or operating capacity of PV power generators. Main idea of proposed method is estimating power demand curve from solar radiation curve and power system load curve with pattern estimation method. After estimating power demand curve, we estimate PV power generation values by fitting linear combination of these curves to power system load curve. We have evaluated proposed method with actual factory data. As a result, we have found root mean square error of proposed method is less than 1.5% of maximum power demand and the error rate is independent from capacity of PV power generators.