価格構造変化を考慮したインバランス料金単価の変動要因に関する分析

抄録

The stable operation of the power system usually requires matching supply to demand. The Japanese government operates a balancing system. Power generation utilities and electricity retailers need to pay the imbalance charge, which is the difference between the planned and actual value multiplied by the imbalance price. To implement better business risk management measures, estimating the imbalance price becomes effective. Various factors could cause the imbalance price to vary. In particular, the imbalance between supply and demand as the main factor might be caused by demand and supply fluctuations. In this research, we attempted to analyze the factors that affect the imbalance price to give suggestions for estimating the imbalance price in the future. In doing so, we adopted the following explanatory variables as the major factors that cause imbalance: spot market sell bids and buy bids which seem to serve as the supply and demand fluctuation factor. The imbalance price rose suddenly between December 2020 and February 2021. Focusing on this fact, we also analyzed the imbalance price considering a structural change to analyze each price fluctuation factor before and after the structural change.