抄録
In this paper, a method is presented to evaluate how effective an electricity generation technology is to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from the national energy system of Japan, based on the long range systems analysis by MARKAL from 1990 to 2030. The proposed method is applied to several electricity generation technologies including nuclear power generation, renewable energy generation and fossil fueled generation with carbon dioxide recovery. Carbon dioxide emissions reduction potentials of these technologies are estimated as well as their cost-effectiveness both economically and environmentally.
How these technologies reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the national energy system is studied by breaking their reduction potentials down into a reduction in electricity generation sector and a reduction in the other sectors, and resulting technological changes and energy resources reallocation are discussed.
Sensitivity analysis is also conducted with respect to the costs of renewable generation systems and fossil fueled power plants with carbon dioxide recovery, nuclear power plant capacity growth rate and energy demand growth rate.
