地域別電力需要予測手法の開発について (1)

経済社会指標の予測

抄録

This paper relates to the forecasting method of the electric power demands (kWh & kW) of a region, approached by not only time series analysis but economic and social indexes. Those indexes, based on historical statistics such as census and establishment statistics, are rearranged from an administrative division to a managerial division of the electric power company, and applied as fundamental information for forecast-ing the area's kWh and also sales promotion.
This method of forecasting the area's kWh is based on the concept that area's kWh is strongly connected with the population ; their lifestyle and their activity within the region.
In the paper, the framework of the computational model system and forecast result are discussed. The population, number of households and their members, and number of employed persons, are all evaluated.
The forecasting method of the area's population proposed here is based on the concept that the transition of population consists of both natural growth and immigration. By estimating both factors, the future area's population can be easily forecasted.
The information of whether the population is increasing or decreasing is useful for forecasting the region's kWh and required sales promotion.