Wheat Market Instability in Afghanistan: A Case Study of Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif, Bamyan and Ghor Provinces

抄録

Wheat is the major crop and staple food in Afghanistan. Though it is a strategic crop in the country, the nation has never been self-sufficient in wheat domestic production. Yet as a wheat deficit country, it has been highly reliant on wheat and flour imports together with international humanitarian food aids. Thereby, such tremendous dependency on external sources has often led to considerable wheat price fluctuations in Afghan wheat markets associated with imports superfluity or distortions over the years. However, despite the overall weak performance of wheat market in Afghanistan since 2001, the country has got somehow relative stability in this regard over the recent years. Therefore, this study was conducted to address the hurdle through a holistic fashion focusing on both wheat domestic production as well as market aspects in Afghanistan. For production, the study was designed to detect the key underlying factors behind wheat domestic production shortfalls, and for market analysis, wheat price trend was evaluated to determine better policy options so that Afghanistan can achieve better functioning wheat markets in the long run. After all, the findings of this study suggest that there are five mutually exclusive key common factors (invisible factors) behind wheat domestic production quantity and quality failure. Moreover, regarding wheat market stability, Pakistan has been identified as the key disruptive player in the beginning while the Central Asian countries particularly Kazakhstan has recently been the key contributor to wheat market stability in Afghanistan. Therefore, beside concrete policies to boost wheat domestic production within the country, stronger trade ties with Kazakhstan certainly ensure better wheat market performance in Afghanistan.