C-reactive Protein Can Predict Patients with Cirrhosis at a High Risk of Early Mortality after Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

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Objective The aim of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of early mortality after acute esophageal variceal bleeding by measuring the C-reactive protein (CRP) level.

Methods We retrospectively evaluated 154 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Differences between categorical variables were assessed by the chi-square test. Continuous variables were compared using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses consisting of clinical laboratory parameters were performed to identify risk factors associated with the 6-week mortality. The discriminative ability and the best cut-off value were assessed by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results Child-Pugh C patients showed a significantly higher 6-week mortality than Child-Pugh A or B patients (38% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). The 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients was associated with the age (p<0.0001), etiology of cirrhosis (p=0.003), hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.0003), portal vein thrombosis (p=0.005), baseline creatinine (p=0.0001), albumin (p=0.001), white blood cell count (p=0.038), baseline CRP [p=0.0004; area under the ROC (AUROC)=0.765; optimum cut-off value at 1.30 mg/dL] and bacterial infection (p=0.019). We determined that CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL was an independent predictor for 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients [odds ratio (OR)=8.789; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.080-47.496; p=0.003], along with a creatinine level of 0.71 mg/dL (OR=17.628; 95% CI: 2.349-384.426; p=0.004) (73% mortality if CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL vs. 19% if CRP<1.30 mg/dL, p<0.0001).

Conclusion In Child-Pugh C patients with esophageal variceal bleeding, a baseline CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL can help identify patients with an increased risk of mortality.