研究論文
市町村総合計画における計画人口の過大性
～北関東3県を対象として～
キーワード:
Municipality master-plan,
Overestimation of population,
Cohort-change rate method,
Population projection
2012 年 35 巻 2 号 p. 51-59
詳細
2012 年 35 巻 2 号 p. 51-59
Higher accuracy in population projections for municipality master-plans has been emphasized with the impending society of dwindling birthrates and an aging population, but such population projections have planned for numbers higher than actual populations. This phenomenon is evident in the past in most municipality master-plans. Thus, the aim of this paper is to examine the overestimation of the present population projection quantitatively. We analyze 112 population projections of municipality master-plans in three North Kanto prefectures (Ibaraki, Gunma, and Tochigi) in comparison with the populations estimated by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Three main findings are discussed. First, population projections in 112 municipality master-plans overestimated by 4% compared to estimated municipality populations. Second, population projections overestimate by 5% compared to the estimated population of each prefecture. Finally, small municipalities tend to overestimate population projections.
