年齢効果説の再考と高齢者犯罪急増の要因分析

抄録

Japan has been facing a steep rise in the number of crimes committed by the elderly (“elderly crimes”) in recent years. This is generally attributed to Japan being the world's fastest aging society. However, there are no reports on an increase in the number of elderly crimes in other countries already experiencing aging societies. The anomaly observed in statistics of elderly crimes in Japan poses several questions, such as if the widely accepted theory on the distribution of crime number against age is eventually broken in Japan and whether the anomaly is a direct result of societal changes inherent to the rapid aging of society. From the perspective of the theory on the distribution of crime number against age, Japanese statistics have shown us that the shape of the distribution changes depending on the species of crimes. There is no universal distribution applied for all kinds of crimes, suggesting that crimes are triggered by personal and/or social causes. With the regression analysis of elderly crimes in Japan, it has been found that property offenses are strongly influenced by an economic poverty factor, while personal offenses are significantly affected by a social isolation factor more than an economic poverty factor.