2019 年 53 巻 2 号 p. 109-125
The role of agricultural investment growth in alleviating climate risks for wheat production systems and markets was examined using a partial equilibrium model, the Wheat Economy Climate Change (WECC) model, which covers the wheat markets of 10 countries and two regions. This study examines how future agricultural investments will affect the world wheat market. The volatility of international wheat prices at baseline is expected to increase in 2014-2016 and until 2040 because of climate change. However, a constant increase in agricultural investments in major producing countries will contribute to international wheat price stability. In particular, agricultural investments in Russia are crucial for stabilizing international wheat prices in mid-long term under future climate change conditions.
