Abstract
Starting from historical sketch of econometrics as a discipline, we consider how and to what extent the econometric model is useful in economic analysis. Recently, economists in the rational expectation school offend the conventional econometric model ; instead, they recommend to utilize the time-series model such as the autoregressive and moving-average model. Reconsidering what is the model and what is meant by usefulness of economic analysis, we conclude that both of the large-scale econometric model and the time-series model do not lead us to meaningful economic analysis and forecast, simply because they lack theoretical contents.
