初等教育における児童の確率概念の発達を促す学習材の開発(I) : 共通概念経路に基づく学習指導と評価を通して

抄録

　　 The purpose of this study is to acquire the fundamental data for the curriculum development based on the realities of children's probability concept.

　　 In this paper, the author investigated the Common Cognitive Path (CCP) in the children's probability judgments. As a result, the following CCP were found in the sixth grade children in the problem to compare likelihood of drawing out a red ball from the box contains red and white balls.

　　 (1) The total number of balls in each boxes is the same, but the number of red balls is different → (2) The total number of balls in each boxes is different, but the number of red balls is the same → (3) The total number of balls in each boxes is different, but the ratio of the number of red balls to white balls in each boxes is 1:1 → (4) The total number of balls in each boxes is different, but the ratio of the number of red balls to white balls in each boxes is the same, but the ratio is not 1:1

　　 Then the author proposed the methods and techniques of instruction based on the CCP, and also constructed the rubric to evaluate grounds for children's probability judgments.

　　 As a result of instruction based on the CCP, the ratio of children who judge likelihood objectively based on the idea of the ratio of the number of red balls to white balls increased.

　　 This shows the achievement of criteria on the rubric assessment. This study shows the necessity and the possibility of the curriculum development based on the realities of the probability concept of children in the elementary education stage, and it also gives the suggestions for the curriculum development that connects with the curriculum of probability in secondary education in Japan.