Building monthly sales forecast model for Japanese Ryokan using the BOJ TANKAN, and Consideration of seasonality Predictive Analysis Model.

Abstract

In the management of the Japanese Ryokan, especially in the family business-like Japanese Ryokan, scientific management based on data and statistics is not sufficiently performed relying on the past experience and intuition of the past, hence the management of the Japanese Ryokan is very severe.

In this paper, I built, analyzed and verified a monthly sales forecast model as a basic research field of revenue management in Japanese Ryokan with regression analysis, which was built by using actual daily sales data for about 10 years and the BOJ Tankan.

In the future, in light of daily rack rate settings and the status of advance reservations, season on / off, and consecutive holidays, I will further deepen and verify if the set rack rates are statistically appropriate.