Implementation and Demonstration of a System for the Forecasting of Surface Avalanche Potential Caused by Snowfall from a Cyclone

抄録

In the avalanche on Mt. Nasu on March 27, 2017, eight persons lost their lives and many others were injured. One of the problems when an avalanche occurs is visualizing the potential occurrence of a surface avalanche. Accordingly, a system has been designed and implemented to show, in a two-dimensional model, the surface avalanche potential caused by snowfall from cyclones in a 5 km square mesh across Japan. A demonstration experiment was conducted to provide the information and verify the system. In this paper, the contents and usage of a new system for forecasting the surface avalanche potential caused by snowfall from cyclones are examined, based on the results of a questionnaire conducted after the demonstration experiment, to provide information for forecasting the potential of avalanche and comparing it with other avalanche information. This study then considers the practical use of the system. As a result, the surface avalanche potential caused by snowfall from a cyclone can be visualized over a wide area. Such forecast information is both serviceable and potentially lifesaving.