Sea Level Rise-Induced Coastal Flooding and Its Potential Impacts in Bali Province, Indonesia

抄録

Human-induced climate change generates a rise in global temperature and melting ice, which then causes sea levels to expand. The coastal zone, particularly in low-lying areas, is considered the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In recent years, the intensity of erosion, coastal inundation, and storm flooding has increased significantly in coastal areas due to rising sea levels. Projecting the impact of sea level rise and potential exposure to coastal communities at a regional level is essential for coastal planning and climate change mitigation in a given region. Coastal flooding frequently occurs in the Bali Islands during the high tide season and inundates low-lying areas. This phenomenon significantly undermines livelihoods, as the Bali Islands are Indonesia's leading tropical tourism destination. The present study utilizes a combination of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and regional sea-level change data to build a potential risk map for sea level rises under various scenarios. In addition, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data was also applied in this study to assess the magnitude of losses from coastal flooding with the assumption that there were no changes in LULC during the study period. DEM and LULC data were obtained from the Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) of the Republic of Indonesia. It is estimated that at the current rising rate, a total of 7176.46 ha of the Bali Islands will be below the water level by 2100, with Jembrana, Denpasar Buleleng, and Badung among the most affected by sea level rise. Our findings underline the necessity of adaptation policies to reduce coastal flooding impacts and mitigate climate change in the region.