Abstract
Timber supply from the national forest is of public interest because it can contribute to not only the development of forest industries but also the mitigation of global warming by substituting fossil fuels with forest biomass or saving energy using wood materials for constructions. In this study, the financial outlook of the national forest when it expands its final harvests was examined. First, the budget of the Japanese government was estimated under the scenario in which its expenditure balances with its income. Because the expenditure for social securities and redemption of government bonds would increase in the future, other policy expenses, including the budget for Forest Agency, would sharply decrease. The budget for the national forest was also estimated to decrease along with it. On the other hand, when the national forest would increase its final harvests, its deficit was estimated to expand because the expenditure for silviculture increased by two times despite the increase in its income from timber sales. It may be quite important for the national forest to reduce costs for harvesting and silviculture by encouraging entrepreneurs such as logging contractors or developing a cost-effective tending system. If these costs could be reduced, the deficit of the national forest can be estimated to be largely reduced.
