ブラジルのバイオエタノール政策の効果

－砂糖需給へ与える影響－

抄録

The production and utilization of biofuels is promoted in many countries and regions, and these markets are expected to expand in the future. Our study uses a dynamic partial equilibrium model to examine how Brazilian bioethanol production will impact Brazilian and world sugar markets. If the Brazilian government abolished anhydrous blends for gasoline beginning in 2013/14, the international sugar price would decrease by 12.4% by 2017/18. The study result shows that\ Brazilian bioethanol consumption has an impact on international sugar prices. While the lower international sugar price could be beneficial to sugar-consuming regions, it could damage sugar-producing and sugar-exporting countries that depend heavily on sugar exports. Thus, it is concluded that the Brazilian bioethanol policy has a floor price effect for the international sugar price and an important role in maintaining world sugar production and the sugar industry at a reproduction level.