In tandem with continuing demographic shifts, such as declining birth rates and the ageing of society, the number of vacant lots in suburban residential zones is expected to increase. Accordingly, research which sheds light on factors contributing to the emergence and persistence of vacant lots is of critical importance for the future course of urban planning. This research examines the relationships between the emergence and persistence of vacant lots and topography, an important component of urban structure, through an analysis of Kashiwa, a typical suburban area on the fringe of the Tokyo Metropolis. Vacant lots are classified into 18 different processional patterns based on land-cover determined from air photos from three periods: 1970, 1989, and 2007. Our results demonstrate that vacant lots which have persisted for most of the study period (>18 years) are strongly correlated with lower elevations, sloped land, and altered terrain. As a result, we suggest that the emergence and persistence of vacant lots is strongly correlated with topography, and discuss how to effectively utilize vacant lots according to their topographical situation.
