2011 年 15 巻 p. 153-162
Lifeline disruptions in earthquake disaster seriously affect user's daily lives and socio-economic activities. In this paper, an assessment model for effects of utility lifeline disruptions has been developed taking account of countermeasures by both suppliers and users. First, time-dependent probability distributions of 2³ disruption patterns of three lifelines are evaluated on the basis of seismic intensities, vulnerability of pipelines and post-earthquake emergency shutdown controls. Users' time-dependent activity levels normalized to 1 at nonnalcy are evaluated for each disruption pattern considering acceptable outage time due to back-ups. Two time functions are combined to evaluate area-wide activity levels in the disaster-stricken area, aiming at minimization of the overall impact.
