復興計画のための震災地域の人口回復予測モデル
－兵庫県南部地震の神戸市の分析と首都直下地震対策への応用－
キーワード:
Recovery,
Population,
Regression Analysis,
Prediction Model,
the 1995 Kobe Earthquke,
Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake
2011 年 15 巻 p. 285-292
詳細
2011 年 15 巻 p. 285-292
This study aims to setup a prediction model of recovery of population in areas damaged by earthquake. Firstly, a basic concept of a prediction model is shown. That is constituted by 2-step of Regression Analysis. The model is set up by using population data in Kobe city after 1995 Kobe Earthquake. It shows fliat damages on people and buildings have statistically significant relation to population decrease and recovery. Secondly, the msodel is applied to 23 wards at Tokyo in Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake. Population recovery of each ward is estimated. It is estimated that some wards would take long time until recovery. This research is useful for disaster recovery planning.
