地震火災時の不完全情報下における最遅避難時刻の不確実性を考慮した避難安全限界時期のリアルタイム判定に関する基礎的検討

抄録

It is important to set safety limits for residents’ disaster activities such as early fire extinguishing in order to prevent failing them to escape from an urban fire on post-earthquake fire. In this paper, we introduced a basic study on a method for determining the safety limit timing of residents’ evacuation using real-time evacuation guidance model, which considering incomplete fire information. First, we defined the safety limit time based on the evacuation time of critical. Second, we proposed two probabilistic methods for determining the evacuation start time as a measure to prevent losing the safety limit timing, which are connectivity evaluation of evacuation network based on fire information and precalculation of probability distribution of critical time.