2025 年 35 巻 1 号 p. 19-35
Safety alerts play a critical role in preventing accidents caused by product misuse, which is often difficult to mitigate through design alone. Despite their importance, the effectiveness of safety alerts in reducing accidents involving consumer products has not been sufficiently examined. Accurate risk assessment is essential for effective accident prevention. To ensure the accuracy of risk assessment, the effectiveness of accident prevention measures should be quantified. This study aims to assess the impact of safety alerts using statistical models. We assess the efficacy of alerting users to accidents resulting from uncleaned microwaves in Japan. We employ the Koyck model, commonly used to evaluate public relations efforts, along with logistic regression analysis. This study employs the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method in parameter estimations. We determine that the likelihood of accidents was reduced by approximately 5.2%–13.2% based on average reporting outcomes. This result is consistent with the effects of safety campaigns in the field of traffic safety shown in previous studies. The study’s results emphasize the importance and effectiveness of government agency-driven public awareness campaigns to address residual risks during the product design phase. However, it was found to be small compared to the accident prevention effects of various safety designs that have already been identified. Such efforts promote the development of more rational and systematic approaches to consumer product safety.
