抄録
The long-term stabilization target of greenhouse gases is discussed with the consideration of the post-Kyoto treaty. However,
it is very difficult to decide the target level because of large uncertainties of global warming and its impacts, and inevitable
value judgments. For example, EU proposes that the increase in global mean temperature should be below 2 ºC from
pre-industrial level. We conducted integrated assessments of global warming damages and mitigation and adaptation
measures for different stabilization levels, and investigated which level Japanese experts consider to be preferable from the
provided quantitative results of impacts alleviation and emission reduction costs which were scientifically obtained. Based on
the evaluations of and the comparison with the Stern Review that intends to be a recent comprehensive assessment of global
warming, this paper discussed how we should deal with the issue of long-term target and whether they are appropriate. Our
highly consistent analysis indicates that around 550 ppmv stabilization is justified better than the EU-proposed target or the
levels recommended by the Stern Review, and will contribute towards leading discussions on the post-Kyoto treaty.
