抄録
Exacerbation of water stress is a critical issue for sustainable development of human society. This study analyzes the change in water stress during this century based on the annual water withdrawal-to-availability ratio, and contributions of major causes to the change, for each of the global river basins under different socioeconomic development and climate change scenarios. Examples of the results are as follows: The stress will increase in 58%-62% of the world river basin areas until around 2030, as a result of population growth and the increase in per capita municipal and industrial water withdrawals. On the other hand, the stress will decrease in 5% of such areas due to different reasons by region. In the Huang He river basin, which is currently threatened by high water stress, the stress is expected to increase until around 2030 mainly due to population growth, and to decrease drastically thereafter due to an increase in water availability and a decrease in per capita agricultural water withdrawal associated with climate change. Measures in the water management until around 2030 will be significant in this river basin; and considerations of uncertainties in climate change will be important in a planning of measures for after 2030, because the climate change influences both water availability and agricultural water withdrawal.
