2020 年 41 巻 3 号 p. 68-76
This paper presents the effect of changes in meteorological conditions in a study on the feasibility of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction by 80% in Japan toward 2050. The authors develop a bottom-up energy system model which incorporates a high-temporal-resolution power sector and analyze the feasibility under 18 patterns of variable renewables’ (VREs’) power profiles. Simulation results show that the changes in meteorological conditions, namely the duration of sunless-and-windless period would substantially impact the installed capacity of electricity storage systems. Since the capacity may differ by as much as 300 GWh in 2050, considering several VRE power profiles would be essential when studying future massive decarbonization where VRE is expected to account for more than 50% in power generation mix. Although the effect on the degree of electrification and the technology choice in the final demand sectors by the changes in meteorological conditions is relatively small, the minor difference may lead to huge variation in GHG marginal abatement cost.
