抄録
In order to achieve carbon neutral society, decarbonization of energy sector which emit over 80% of GHG in Japan should be the top priority. Energy policy must be based on quantitative analysis, and energy-economic models can mathematically analyze energy system. In this research, economically optimal energy supply-demand or flow and technology mix to achieve carbon neutral energy system in Japan is calculated by bottom-up technology selection model which is improved to consider carbon neutrality of energy system by considering CCU in detail. One-hour temporal resolution of energy supply-demand of household, commercial, and part of industry sector is also typical aspect of improvement of this research, which enable to analyze end-use in detail and endogenously calculate power demand especially important to carbon neutrality in one-hour temporal resolution. In this research, calculation scenario is set in terms of carbon fixation, the progress in development of geological storage of CO2 and availability of carbon fixation to chemical products. Calculation results show that the capacity of carbon fixation influences fossil fuel utilization in system and determine the usage rate of carbon-free energy. Electrification of electrifiable services and decarbonization of oil-using services such as automobile and aviation is prioritized, and installation of synthetic methane is observed only the case which have less capacity of carbon fixation. Significant increase of power demand is predicted by electrification of end-use sector and typically by water electrolysis to produce hydrogen and DAC to capture CO2.
