日用品市場における新製品売上予測モデルの構築

抄録

A new product can increase risks of failure in this recession. Therefore it is clearly demanded more efficient and accurate marketing procedures based on scientific approach rather than human prospect relying on their experience and intuition. The purpose of this paper is to describe a practical forecasting for new product a marketing management decision system which supports the profit planning under uncertainty. In our model, we treat such the model of consumption rate that not only the rate of trial consumption for goods but also the rate of a repeat consumption. The rate of trial consumption is used consumer research data such as results from the data of concept & after using of products and advertising and retailing exposure volume. And the rate of a repeat consumption is used the variable data of change rate from the three months after product launch and degree of wish of purchase after product used test and advertising and constant. We take 18 consumer goods as an object of study. In this case, the time period under analysis is 2008. We succeeded in building the model with multiple regression analysis. Under this approach we were able to secure coefficients of determination of (0.92) and correlation coefficient of (0.96) at the twelve months after product launch which is more than equal to the past model.