Comparing Accuracy of the Final Height Prediction Models for Elite Football Players and Developing a New Model

抄録

Objective This study aimed to assess the accuracy of previously developed height prediction models in male Japanese football players and create new height prediction models.

Materials The participants were elite academy male football players. We collected current height, parent’s height, calendar age and bone age in 6^th grade of primary school and obtained actual final height at 20 to 28 years old.

Methods We compared the accuracy of two conventional models for predicting final height. These used current height, calendar age and either bone age (Model 1) or parental height (Model 2). We then developed a new model to optimize the coefficients of Model 1 (Model 3). The final model added parental height to Model 3 and optimized the coefficients (Model 4).

Results Prediction accuracy was higher for Model 2 (R = 0.52, P < 0.001) than Model 1 (p = 0.33, P < 0.001). The equation of Model 3 was final height = 0.63229313×actual measured height-8.2541327×calendar age-2.3009853×bone age (TW2)+206.627184. The R-square was 0.49 (P < 0.0001). The equation of Model 4 was final height = 0.32156081×actual measured height-
4.6652063×calendar age+0.41903909×father’s height+0.34952508×mother’s height-0.740469×bone age(TW2)+62.1007751. The R-square was 0.61 (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions In the two previous conventional models, a formula using parental height had better predictive accuracy. We developed a new height prediction model using current height, calendar age, father’s and mother’s height and bone age.