科学的な不確実性の認識が地球温暖化対策に対する大学生の意思決定に及ぼす影響

抄録

　 There are many scientific uncertainties associated with global warming, and these uncertainties dis-tort the risks of climate change and make risk communication difficult to a large degree. For this rea-son, this study aims to determine how the scientific uncertainty over climate change influences the deci-sion-making of university students for plans aimed toward mitigating global warming, particularly their support for long-term carbon reduction targets. This study also determines the factors that affect indi-viduals’ responses to the scientific uncertainty. Therefore, a student experiment was conducted during lectures for university students, wherein information was dispersed in phases on issues such as the effects and costs of long-term reduction targets for global warming and the scientific uncertainties associated with the climatic sensitivity.

　 The results are as follows: (1) Recognition of the costs led 34% of the students to shift toward a pref-erence for less stringent reduction targets. (2) Recognition of the scientific uncertainties caused 19% of the students to shift toward a preference for more stringent reduction targets. (3) Individual responses to scientific uncertainty varied owing to three factors: recognition of the risks of global warming, recog-nition of the cause-and-effect relation between ozone layer depletion and global warming, and the main sources of information about global warming.