地方鉄道廃止に伴う地域人口変化の計測

Stepwlse Chow Testによるアプローチ

抄録

THIS ARTICLE AIMS TO MEASURE THE INFLUENCE OF A REMOVAL OF LOCAL RAILWAYS ON THE REGIONAL POPULATION. TENPOKU, NAYORO AND SHIBETSU LINES ARE SELECTED AS THE OBJECT OF THIS STUDY, THEY WERE LOCATED IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-WEST AREAS IN HOKKAIDO BEFORE THE REMOVAL IN 1989. IN THIS PAPER, FIRST, TREND-SEASONAL VARIATION MODELS ARE ESTIMATED FOR THE POPULATIONS OF THE STUDY AREAS USING TIME SERIES DATA ON THE POPULATION. SECOND, THE STEPWISE CHOW TEST IS APPLIED TO EXAMINE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WAS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STUDY AREAS. FINALLY, THE NUMBERS OF CHANGES IN THE REGIONAL POPULATIONS AFTER THE REMOVAL ARE MEASURED BY THE TREND-SEASONAL VARIATION MODELS.