道路の信頼性評価の簡便法

抄録

Travelers require reliable transport systems that they can certainly arrive on time at their destination. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a simplified method for the evaluation of reliability on road traffic. Two factors are incorporated into this method. Those are the safety margin and the satisfaction at traveling velocity. The safety margin is allowed by travelers in their departure time in order to improve the probability on time at their destination. Some actual studies are attempted to verify the applicability of the simplified method for the travel demand forecasting and for the estimation of transport systems. As a result, the simplified method was concluded to be useful for the improvement planning of road network.