The Projections of Labour Force Population and the Future Change of Dependency Burden in Japan

Abstract

Population aging is a common phenomenon in the developed countries and it also occurs in Japan. This phenomenon has raised many problems that cover a wide field in our daily lives. And the most important and urgent problem is an increasing burden to the people supporting the dependent people. In other words, it is one of the greatest concerns whether or not we have the economical and social ability to support the dependent people, especially the increasing elderly. In this paper, the author made analysis on the Japanese dependency burden using Labour Force Dependency Ratios (LDR). At first, she projected economic activity ratios by sex and age and consequently the total amount of labour force population until 2025. After that, using the future labour force population, she calculated future LDR. Judging from the results of LDR, the future level of dependency burden will be on the same as or the less than that we experienced already at the past. Today's LDR level (86.0) is the lowest after 1955. LDR will rise to the future. LDR in 2025 will be 103.5 and this will be same level as that in around 1970 and lower than 112.0 in 1955. The future LDR depends on future economic activity ratios. And it is clear that there is a close relationship between LDR and the problems concerning our working circumstances in the future. Various kinds of subjects brought from LDR tend to our choice of the way of working. What we expect for the future working circumstances and hope for a society to live is key issue to work out our future change of the depeudency burden.