ANALYSIS FOR REALIZATION OF LOW CARBON SOCIETIES AND DE-MATERIALIZATION SOCIETIES IN JAPAN: FOCUS ON STEEL

Abstract

 To realize Low Carbon Societies, it is essential to reduce CO₂ emission from energy-intensive material. This research focuses on steel as an example of energy-intensive material, and develops a model to estimate 1)service supplied from goods' stock, 2) goods stock, 3) steel stock, 4) steel demand, 5) CO₂ emission from steel production. This model was applied to Japan for 2005-2050 and scenario analysis was done for 4 scenarios. Steel demand in Japan decreases even in FIX scenario(no apparent counter-measure), and it was 85% relative to 2005. MIX scenario(apply all countermeasures), which reduction is the most, is 38% relative to 2005 and 27% smaller than FIX scenario in 2050. Steel stock per capita in CM scenario (steel service reduction and service efficiency improvement) and TC scenario(substitution to high tensile strength steel) are not so different, 9.4 ton/cap, 9.3 ton/cap respectively. Steel stock per capita in MIX scenario is 8.6 ton/cap. As for CO₂ emission, TC scenario and MIX scenario have a large reduction effect; 59%, 63% relative to 2005, respectively.