局地的な大雨の予測精度向上を目指した降水ナウキャスト手法の開発

抄録

X-band polarimetric radars (X-band radars) have an advantage in observational resolution temporally and spatially over conventional C-band radars. We developed the new nowcasting method utilizing observation of X-band radars for the improvement of localized heavy rain predictability. First, precipitation distribution is separated into small- and large-scale components, corresponding to convective and stratiform precipitation, through wavelet transformation. Prediction is improved by compositing the extrapolated distribution for each scale. Predictability is further improved by including the time development of small-scale component based on the analysis of precipitation characteristics.