抄録
This paper applies a hydrological model, the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model to a data sparse basin named KAMO River basin (KRB), in order to estimate the hydrological variations under climate and land-use changes. The goodness of fit of the model to observed discharge data indicates the value of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of calibration and validation was 0.72 and 0.69, respectively. The trend analysis indicated that with the impact of climate change, the annual precipitation and stream flow seemed to decrease. But there was no evidence to prove the flood risk decreasing. Land use changes had great impact on stream flow. The urbanization and deforestation led to high peak flow. Furthermore, they tended to present a greater effect on runoff in summer. This study shows that the HYPE model was capable of simulating and predicting hydrological variations in the basin as the results close to the ones found through studies in other basins experiencing similar climate and land-use changes.
