CHANGES IN RIVER DISCHARGE IN THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA REGION PROJECTED USING MRI-AGCM AND MIROC5 DATASETS

抄録

A distributed flow routing model with kinematic wave flow approximation (1K-FRM) was applied to project river discharge in the Indochina Peninsula region. The input data for flow routing model 1K-FRM were the generated-runoff data at 3-hourly time step from the latest versions of the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.2S, MRI-AGCM3.2H) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) for three 25-year periods: 1979-2003 (present climate), 2015-2039 (near future climate), and 2075-2099 (future climate). Simulated discharge data for the near future climate and the future climate were compared with those for the present climate to evaluate the changes in flow in the region under a changing climate. The statistical significance of river discharge changes in the Indochina Peninsula region was also analyzed.