抄録
This paper discussed estimation method of probable maximum value of extreme precipitation. We analyzed the 99th percentile of 10-minutes and 1-hour precipitation for each daily average temperature bin based on observational data in Sapporo. Even if temperature is lower than zero degrees, 99th percentile precipitation intensities tend to have an approximation equation that rate of the precipitation increase was almost same as the Clausius-Clapeyron like relation. We estimated the future 99th percentile rainfall intensity under climate change condition by using the projected future temperature in a dynamically downscaled temperature in the Regional Spectral Model (RSM).
